Saturday, September 30, 2006

NFL week 4 picks

Dallas -9 over TITANS
If TO plays, he will put up 100 yards and 2 TDs. I think he's going to use this accidental overdose as a way to come back with a vengeance. That statement does not make any sense. My real reason for this wager is Dallas' defense which should destroy the inept offense of the Titans. I also think Dallas will be able to pound the ball with Jones and Barber. I think they'll run the ball 35+ times this week. They may not even need TO if he plays. Considering the defenses that the Titans have faced, I do not think they will match up well with the 3-4 schemes of the 'Boys. Dallas' defense is maybe a bit faster than San Diego's and the Titans got nowhere on them. Dallas has forced critical turnovers in their first two games this season, and I think that trend will continue this week.

Indy -9 over JETS
The Jets do not have a running game, and that is the way to beat the Colts. I also think their defense is terrible. If you have any receiver for the Colts, start them on your fantasy team this week. I am interested in how the Colts are going to run or stop the run come January. Addai needs to step up before then to alleviate some strain on their passing game because we know what can happen to Manning when he has to do everything in the postseason. Their defense also has to toughen up on the run, but everyone knows when you have a smaller, fast defense, you're vulnerable to a rushing attack.

Miami -3.5 over HOUSTON
Houston is beyond terrible, and I cannot believe I took points with them last week. David Carr is the bright shining spot for this team, and hopefully, he can earn himself a ticket to another franchise. I have said it before, he could be a breakout star for another team. I'd love to see him go to Minny or some other team with ready made weapons, a decent O-line, but no QB.Ronnie Brown will probably run for 125+ this week. If he does not, the Dolphins line is in worse shape than I thought. Pound the ball and take it out of Culpepper's hands.

BUFFALO (even) over Vikings
Great pass defense with no offense at home versus a team with no real offense and a good defense. I take the home team. The Bills have looked much better in their games than the Vikings. The Vikings need a Qb for the future because they can just waste time with the talented weapons they have with a 39 year old QB throwing to them.

Saints +7 over PANTHERS
This game makes me nervous but for some reason, the Panthers team just does not have it together this year. I know Steve Smith is really amazing, but they shouldn't nearly blow a game to a team whose QB has internal damage. I like the Saints ability to pound the Panthers with both Bush and Deuce this week. It will help rest their defense just to chew up clock.

San Diego -2.5 over RAVENS
San Diego is my pick to win the AFC West. If the Colts look shaky in their Bengals and Pats games, I may move the Chargers to my number 1 AFC team. This game will make more people believe because for some reasont he Ravens D is playing like it is 2000. Well, against bad competition.. They lucked into an easier schedule because of their 3rd place finish in the west last year. They have everyone rested because they did not make the playoffs. They have an amazing ground game, and can slowly bring along Rivers through the season to get him ready fro the playoffs. They do not have to force him to win games because their defense is so stout and the running game is so good. He can pull a Big Ben in '04.

San Fran +7 over KC
KC is dead without Trent Green. Huard can throw dump off passes, and that is it. I like the points here, because San Fran will be scoring plenty. I'm sitting Eddie Kennison on the bench right now because Trent Green is not in the lineup. It's killing me to have one good WR.

RAMS -5.5 over Lions
The Lions are so bad that Millen is starting to look smart for being able to keep his job for so long. I want the Lions to draft Dwayne Jarrett next year to add another 6 foot 5 receiver to their team. Maybe he can mushroom to 230-240 lbs like Mike Williams. Speaking of Mike Williams, it's amazing how the Maurice Clarett early entry has nearly destroyed his career as well. The NCAA jobbed him by not allowing him to re-enter the Trojans program (which steamrolled competition without him). During his off year, he worked out with Chris Carter on running routes, ran a 4.55, and was drafted in the top 15. Since the draft he has added 20+ lbs, and been listed as inactive on a terrible team. In 5 years, he could be in shape and destroying defenses as a 27 yr old that is a mismatch no matter who covers him. In 5 years, he could be out of football on a police blotter for throwing away his NFL money on drugs.

Browns -2.5 over RAIDERS
Who is Q for the Raiders? Why did they pass on Matt Leinart? Why did they sign lamont jordan? Why aren't they shopping randy moss around? Why isn't Gallery the next Tony Boselli? With Leinart, they'd at least have a future to look forward to. The 2005 NFL draft had a ton of RB prospects out there, and the Raiders threw away their top 1st round pick for Randy Moss without a healthy gunslinger to throw the bombs to him. With those 2 picks they could have bundled them to move up and pick one of the top 3 backs. Even doing the trade, they could have grabbed a serviceable RB instead of signing Lamont Jordan. Al Davis needs to pass on so they can bring in new management.

Jags -3 over Skins
Beating up on the Texans is not a statement game for the Skins and the Jags will be smarting after the loss to the Colts. The Skins offense will be overmatched versus the Jags defense. They have the power in the front line to stuff the Skins rushing attack and force Brunell to beat them. If the Jaguars could figure out a way to beat the Colts, they could host a playoff game. It makes a huge difference home versus on the road in the playoffs and add to that the Florida team in cold weather factor.

BENGALS -6 over Pats
This will be the point in the season where the Pats show their true colors as the 10-6 AFC L-East champs. They'll host a playoff game, and probably get the snot beaten out of them by the Broncos or Jags. I'm hoping Rudi Johnson pulls out a big game because his no show last week made me lose my fantasy match up by .5 points. Anyone know a QB who has bounced throws and created turnovers to benefit the other side? Tom Brady, yeah, Mr. Make no Mistakes himself. If Phil Simms announces this game, listen for his glossing over of Brady's bad throws (the one hopper in week 1 was hysterical to listen to Simms cover up).

Because the Pats are the most expensive team to see live, I have this scary feeling that the Pats ownership is not playing to win. It is as if they know they can win the division and host a playoff game, which generates huge dollars for the home teams. The team is 13 mil under the cap, generates huge revenue streams, and is probably printing money. Because of the 3 SBs in 4 years, they do not need to deliver the goods to the fan base. They can sit back, build a young team for another serious push in a couple of years, and still make tons of money.

BEARS -3.5 over Hawks
The Bears Defense will handle the Hawks because Shaun Alexander is not there. Even with Shaun, I don't see the Hawks scoring more than 20 points. I do see the Bears Defense forcing turnovers because Hasselback is going to have to throw 35-40 times this week. This will probably decide home field advantage in the NFC. I can see the NFC playing out like it did last year, with the South and East beating each other up leaving the conference to whomever gets homefield. Seattle never impresses me. They were the shabbiest 13-3 team in recent memory, but because they get homefield, it's almost a lock come playoff time with how beat up the South and East teams are. I even commented on this last year about the Seahawks having an easy road to the Super Bowl.

Packers +11 over EAGLES
I can see the Packers scoring enough garbage time points to cover. The Eagles have a problem with consistency, as shown by the last two weeks. While this is a home game, it is a MNF game for Favre to put on his holster and play the part of gunslinger one last time.

Friday, September 22, 2006

NFL week 3 picks

NFL 2006 has begun and already Super Bowl picks are being rescinded. The backers of the Dlophins and Panthers feel a little shaky right now. Fortunately, the Panthers can blame Steve Smith's bum hamstring; the Phins just have a crappy quarterback. What I don't understand about Miami is that they did not use ronnie brown early in the 2nd half to help settle Daunte down. I am not saying that because Ronnie is on my fantasy team. I was happy with the 12 points he gave me, but was seriously thrown off by Miami's attempts to throw the ball when the Pats showed the week before you can run on the Bills smaller D.

As far as fantasy football, I am now 2-0 and lead the league in points. I faced the team with Peyton Manning last week, and survived his 400 yard 3 TD performance. I just want to rack up the wins early because we only have a 4 team playoff. Rudi Johnson, thank you for falling to pick number 12 in the draft, thank you idiot fantasy GMs. My fantasy football league has many campaign managers/workers for Democrats; their ineptitude works in football as well.

Panthers -3 over BUCS
Steve Smith has to be playing this week? right? The Panthers lost last week on a fluke fumble versus a better defense than the one they will face this week. The Bucs D finally looks old. I can't believe it happened now in 2006.

BROWNS +7 over Ravens
I'm taking the points here because this should be a hideously ugly game to watch. The kind of 13-7, 12-6 AFC North match up we have all come to hate. I don't want to spoil the party, but Steve McNair isn't looking like 2000 McNair. He looks like an old man who is holding on. If Jamal Lewis plays (listed as questionable), he could get 125 yards as the Browns defense still looks awful. I'd hate that as he is on my opponent's fantasy team this week.

Bengals +2 over STEELERS
I hate going against the Steelers at home, but the Bengals have looked vastly surperior on offense compared to the Steelers. The Steelers O has had no real flow the last two weeks, and the Bengals will put up points. If Troy Polamula is still playing at 50%, Palmer should have a good day. I'm looking for Palmer to torch the secondary early, softening up the defense for Rudi Johnson to slice through in the second half.

Green Bay +7 over DETROIT
The Lions still suck, and Matt Millen should be gone midway through this year. He is a retard, and has a job because he has pictures of the Ford family doing unspeakable things to dogs. I think Favre is going to go bonkers this week, and find Donald Driver 10 times. He does not want to start 0-3 and open the Aaron Rodgers door.

MIAMI -10.5 over Titans
The Titans have no offense and face Nick Saban's schemes. They might score a TD. On the other side, Ronnie Brown should put up 100+ on the Titans D. Take the pressure off of Daunte and move the ball on the ground. When Daunte does not have the weight of the game on his shoulders, he can relax and bomb away.

COLTS -7 over Jags
If this were in Jacksonville, I'd take the points. I just don't see the Jags offense keeping up with the Colts. The Jags are not afraid of the Colts, but I can still see Peyton and Co. putting up 350 yards throught he air on them.

BILLS -5.5 over Jets
This is because the Bills D faces up well against the Jets O. The Jets move throught he air and this si playing to the strength of the Bills. I can see this game being a 20-10 special. The Bills defense is fast enough to negate the use of the screens, which is about Chad Pennington's range.

Chicago -3.5 over VIKINGS
I believe in the Bears defense, and I believe they have a good enough ground game to open things up over the top for Grossman. The Bears defense is as potent as last year's version, maybe better, and the now have a QB who can take advantage of the play action passes down the field.

TEXANS +4 over Washington
The Skins can't move the ball without Portis being healthy, and he still is not 100%. They looked pathetic last week against the Cowboys. The Texans can move the ball through the air, which is a weakness of the Skins D now, but their defense still stinks. In their defense, they have gone up against the Eagles and Colts in back to back weeks.

Eagles -6 over NINERS
I like how the Eagles say they are going to run more, and then do not follow through because their running game sucks. You have to love how they signed Brian Westbrook to an extension and he still cannot close out games for them. "He's perfect for the west coast offense of reid and co", ummm, no he does not put games away when the west coast offense has given your team a lead. He is no Roger Craig. I think the Niners are still a ways away before they can contend with the likes of the Eagles defense.

Giants +3.5 over SEATTLE
While I dislike this pick, the Giants have looked better in their two games than the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks miss Hutch, and the Deion Branch trade smells of desperation to improve their passing game. Also of note: the sports guy called another QB "knack for pulling lucky throws out of his ass". Ummm, Tom Brady. Anyone else know a QB who trows so often while almost on the ground that is was considered strange when he got picked off (MNF loss to Miami 2 years ago) doing that very thing and no one said "jeez, he does that on a regular basis, you knew it would happen sometime". Go back to doing what you do best Simmons, ripping other screenwriters' sports movies while never writing your own sports movie script.

CARDINALS -4.5 over Rams
I like Arizona at home, I am a big fan of them when someone else has to travel. The Rams also have this problem of putting the ball in the end zone. I don't think that will cut it this week versus the offense of the Cards.

Broncos +7 over PATRIOTS
The Patriots do not blow out teams, even the bad ones (see last two weeks). This is going to be a low scoring affair, and the 7 is very tempting. The Broncos defense is too good to give up 20 or more to the Pats. I also don't know how well the Pats are going to do against a team that has a more balanced offense than the last two they have faced. I also want to make it known that I hope Tedy Bruschi makes it through this season alright. I can't be the only person who fears the team doctors carting him off one Sunday.

SAINTS +4 over Falcons
It's all about emotion. A return to the Superdome. Reggie Bush's national television NFL debut. A crazy home crowd. No matter what, I am staying up to watch the entire game. I hope you all do, too.

Saturday, September 16, 2006

NFL Week 2 picks

One week down in this glorious season. As a Cowboys fan, I was stunned by the first quarter of the Jags-Cowboys game. watching what looked like a Super Bowl team. Reality then set in for the next 3 quarters. The NFC East is going to be a huge battle this season, and I think that it is going to come down to scheduling and who can win the intradivison games on the road. Scheduling favors the Eagles, but do they have a defense to contain the Giants? Maybe. Do they have an offense to put up points against the Cowboys? Ehhh.

RAVENS -12 over Oakland
The Ravens D looked revamped and rejuvenated. They actually had something going on offense versus a Tampa Bay team known for their defense. They get to beat up on a terrible Oakland team. I kind of want Oakland to go 0-16 to see if Randy Moss goes insane. It would guarantee them that they could draft Brady Quinn, and everyone knows Al Davis loves quarterbacks with strong arms. Why else would they have brought Jeff Geroge out of retirement?

BENGALS -10 over Browns
The Bengals D will stifle the offense of the Browns. It will probably make all of those people who picked up Kellen Winslow off of waivers look stupid this week. I'd like to see another big game from Rudi Johnson for my fantasy team; like a multi-TD game. Carson still is not 100%, listen to me Marvin Lewis.

MIAMI -6 over Bills
Nick Saban will belittle his team all week for their performance on Thursday Night. They have 10 days of rest, home field advantage, and a Bills team with a shaky QB coming to town? Throwing well for one half on the Patriots is one thing, throwing on the Dolphins is another. I also like the prospects of the Dolphins running game. The Bills were sliced by Maroney and Dillon all day. Ronnie Brown should have some clear avenues this game and help the Dolphins control the clock. They need this to help Culpepper stay calm.

INDY -13 over Houston
I'd go so far as to give up more points so my payout could be better with this game. I face Manning this week in fantasy football, wrong week, he'll probably throw 5 TDs. I like Indy's chances this year, but they need to figure out how to get a rythmn to their run game. If they do not, it will just play into the hands of the defensive schemes of the Chargers/Steelers/Pats (yes even the aging Pats).

BEARS -9 over Lions
I can't take the Lions on the road. I also can't take them on the road versus the Bears defense. The Lions D looked good versus the Seahawks but remember the Seahawks don't have Hutch anymore. With no passing options it was easier to stack the line than years past. I also like the way the Bears work their ground game and use play action pass. They effectively use their TE too. I can see this game being 16-0 or 16-3.

EAGLES -3 over Giants
I think the Iggles can contain the Giants this week. This will be a traditional, tough NFC East game with a final score of 20-17 or something low. That of course trounces the promotions of this game which are all focused on the offensive stars. I don't like how the Iggles don't have a run game, but it can still win them regular season games.

Panthers +1 over VIKINGS
The Panthers will not lose two in a row. Fox is too tough a coach to let them drop the ball twice. I also had to start picking road teams. Steve Smith is coming back right?

FALCONS -5.5 over Bucs
I hate how the NFC South is doing this rotational "who is the good team thing" again. Why can't they just have one cominant team and then a bunch of douchey challengers like the AFC East? It makes gambling much easier. I did catch some of the Falcons game, and it looked like Madden 05 come to life. Vick gunning like 10 passes and then scrambling like his college days. I think Vick will get injured by week 10. Then Schaub will lead them to a 6-0 mark to finish the year, and the Falcons finally trade Vick to Oakland for the number 1 pick (Adrian Peterson in this case).

Saints +3 over PACKERS
How did the Pack get the back to back home games to start the season? Lame. I am a Saints fan while they have Reggie Bush. Before this season, when they added Brees and Bush I looked at the over/under for their total wins and said, let's put cash on the over. I believe it can happen. In fact, I think they will win this game, go into the week 3 home opener with a 2-0 record and play the Falcons tough, getting tons of press coverage along the way. The Bush phenomenon is awesome. He had 140 total yards, caught, ran, returned with some flash, and off the field he is donating tons to charity and giving the people down their some love. Between that and Drew Brees taking a full page ad in the New Orleans's Times Picayune (sp?), the karma is stored up for this team.

Cardinals +7 over SEAHAWKS
I think the Madden jinx is alive and well. This is besides the fact that Shaun Alexander had 430 carries last year at age 29. I also think that the Seahawks had tons of lucky breaks last year to go 13-3. I also think Arizona could put up 30 on the Hawks. I trust Dennis Green for some reason. The guy always was coaching with an axe over his head and made the playoffs continuously in Minnesota.

Pats -6 over JETS
I dislike the Pats but this Jets team is bad, despite beating the Titans on the road. Here's 2 questions about the Pats: don't you think after a while the tight ends get mad with all of the TDs that go to LBs and linemen? Don't you also think the RBs get mad with all of the TDs that are 5 yard or less play action passes? It's like the team deliberately keeps some players stats down sot hey do not have to pay them off with decent contracts.

DENVER -10.5 over Chiefs
No Trent Green, no money on the Chiefs. That his was really horrible and should have brought on a flag. I also like the Broncos running game against the swiss cheese D of the Chiefs.

St. Louis -3 over the 49ERS
The Rams drove the ball and their defense looked great. I kind of wish they could have punched one into the endzone, but that shouldn't be a problem versus the 49ers defense. This is not Denver's vaunted D, it's the freakin' Niners. One thing that needs to be brought to people's attention is the amazing run of RBs that have come out of Miami University since the mid 90s. The list is amazing: Gore, McGahee, Portis, the Edge, Jimmy Stewart. The LBs have been awesome as well, but those scouts know what they are doing.

CHARGERS -11.5 over Titans
Ladainian is going to have huge games while the Chargers bring Rivers along. It will be fun watching him run over teams. I think by the end of the year he'll have at least 6 25+ carry games under his belt. It will probably ruin him for next year, but it will be fun to watch. Because the Chargers did not make the playoffs last year, LT and the gang got some extra rest. I've got a feeling they are winning their division. They have the schedule, the RB and the defense to do it.

COWBOYS -6 over Redskins
I know this game will probably end up 13-10 to spite me, but I just can't go against the Boys in their home opener against that pathetic Skins team from last Monday. A frustrating part of the Old Bledsoe experience is the flashes of brilliance between the mediocrity. I just don't know how this happens. Brunell, Favre and Bledsoe all go through this, and maybe it is a sign to leave the game. My question to the Cowboys' fans is, who is the long term answer at QB? It's been the problem since the Aikman era ended.

JACKSONVILLE +3 over Steelers
Home on Monday night and the Steelers do not have Big Ben. Sorry for doubting you last week Jacksonville.

Saturday, September 09, 2006

NFL Picks and some college football observations

Looks like Notre Dame is going to get the push to be in the BCS and hopefully for ratings sake, the national championship. They still have a bad defense that is not up to speed with the likes of Ohio State, Texas, etc. I hope they fall on their face like last year. The OSU-Texas game is very entertaining. I am amazed how the Longhorns are running the show with a Frosh QB. Maybe I shouldn't as they had a killer offense with Mr. 6 Wonderlic test score QB last year. I hope the game keeps up the great defensive play and running (I am pro running the ball, anti-West Coast gay passing). Now with this week's picks for the NFL.

I have to retro pick this, but if anyone picked the Dolphins to win on Thursday they are retarded. Steelers to cover was a no brainer. I have several co-workers who went to the game, and they had been talking about it for weeks. There was no way Pittsburgh was losing.

Bills +10 over PATS
I don't like the Pats when they are giving this many points, plus last year the Bills should have beat the Pats in Foxboro when Willis ran wild. They will cover and willis will have 30 carries.

TAMPA BAY -3 over Ravens
I think this will be low scoring, so a wager on the under would not be bad either. Both teams have some old defenses, sad reminder of what was in the early 2000s.

TITANS -2.5 over Jets
Pinnacle has the spread at -7. That might be more appropriate. I can see the Jets going 0-16, just so they draft Pederson out of Oklahoma. Then again, if they do not see any development or promise out of the Clemons kid, they could draft Brady Quinn. I can't believe I am talking draft before week 1, stop the Mel Kiper routine.

RAMS +4 over Broncos
The Rams at home are usually tough, and after the housecleaning this offseason, should be in the clear. Maybe now with Martz gone they will have a RB carry the ball more than 15 times in a game. I wish I had Steven Jackson on my fantasy team.

BROWNS -3 over Saints
Maybe I'd go with the Saints if they were home, but the Browns are hungry and Willie McGinest sounds incredibly angry. Some of his comments this offseason have been bitter. Belicheck needs to take his head out of his @ss and maybe pay up to keep someone. You won 3 Super Bowls with a great core and some serious luck, the core is almost all gone now.

Seattle -6 over DETROIT
I am tempted by the idea of Kitna with all of the talent around him, but The Hawks are going to steamroll their defense. Losing Hutchinson because they cheaped out and transition tagged him rather than franchise tag him was stupid, but then again, this team delayed signing Shaun Alexander to a huge contract and franchised him, therefore giving out more guaranteed money than they would have had to if they did it a year earlier.

Cincy +7.5 (really Pinnacle is off or something) over CHIEFS
The Chiefs lost their two tackles, and everyone is a year older. Their defense is still sh*tty, and Carson Palmer should have enough in him to handle their secondary. It is easy to throw deep on the Chiefs; it has been for 4 years now.

Eagles -5.5 over TEXANS
F-you Texans and how you screwed over Reggie Bush from the number 1 overall pick. All for a defensive lineman who was not the best guy on his team in college. Oh yeah, enjoy another 3-13 season.

PANTHERS -5 over Atlanta
The Falcons on the road with an older Warrick Dunn and nobody for Vick to throw to, no way. I don't like them this season at all. Then again, this might be the year Vick reverts back to his Va Tech days and carries them to the SB.

Cowboys +2.5 over JAGUARS
Dallas needs to start quick and fast this year if they expect to win the NFC East and keep TO happy or at least tolerable. I also don't like the Jags as they have a difficult schedule this year after the cakewalk they had last season. They are not going to sneak up on anyone this year.

CARDINALS -7.5 over 49ers
The Cards are good against the spread at home, and the 49ers just plain suck. If they had not been suckered into the Alex Smith project (he's smaller than me and an NFL QB), they could have had a combination of Ronnie Brown/Cadillac/Benson at RB with Vince Young/Matt Leinart at QB. Kurt Warner will throw for 300 yards this game.

Bears -3.5 over GREEN BAY
Green Bay could go 3-13 this year and then be fortunate to get a shot at Brady Quinn so the nation can suffer through more shots of Mrs AJ Hawk at games. Sorry, she just isn't hot to me. Kind of looks porny with bad hair.

Colts -3 over GIANTS
I don't buy the Giants being the chic pick for the NFC East crown. Before Clinton Portis' injury, I would have said Washington, then Dallas, then Philly, then NY. Tiki has a lot of miles on him now, and he won't carry them again. You can't have 3 career years in a row.

Vikings +4.5 over WASHINGTON
Sorry, I saw the Skins up close and personal at Foxboro. Their offense is horrible without a healthy Portis. God Awful.

Chargers -3 over OAKLAND
San Diego, Schottenheimer in particular, hates the Raiders. He will go out of his way to punish them. LT should get 25 carries this game.

Good luck. Hey, Look! The Texas Longhorns start their season like the ended it against USC, a terrible call by the officials leads to a Texas touchdown. F-u Longhorns!